METHODOLOGY
How BOTN works
Probability first. Price second. Publication only when the evidence is strong enough.
01
Build a probability
BOTN uses historical results, recent form and available match context to estimate the probability of a market outcome.
02
Compare it with the price
Bookmaker odds imply a market probability. BOTN compares the model probability with that implied probability.
03
Apply evidence gates
A large-looking edge is not enough on its own. Data freshness, market validation and model governance must also pass.
04
Keep a forward record
Selections are snapshotted before the event. Results are settled afterwards so the history cannot be rewritten to flatter the model.
Important
BOTN probabilities are estimates, not promises. A 75% probability still implies that the outcome may fail roughly one time in four over a large, well-calibrated sample.